Trump Loses Mail Ballot Case at Supreme Court 5-4 — His Own Appointee Barrett Writes the Majority Opinion — Then SCOTUS Denies His Carroll Appeal, Meaning He Must Pay $5 Million for Sexual Abuse

The Supreme Court ruled 5-4 in Watson v. Republican National Committee that states may continue counting mail ballots that arrive after Election Day, provided they were postmarked on time — rejecting the RNC's argument that 19th-century federal election-day statutes require ballots to be received by Election Day. Justice Amy Coney Barrett, Trump's own appointee, wrote the majority opinion, joined by Chief Justice Roberts and the three liberal justices. Barrett wrote: "The electorate's choice is made when voting is complete, not when ballots are received." She added: "At bottom, plaintiffs' theory is that because we are governed by 19th-century election-day laws, we are also governed by 19th-century voting practices." The ruling reversed the Fifth Circuit and protects laws in more than half the states and D.C. that permit late-arriving mail ballots. Alito dissented, warning of "lamentable consequences." Trump called it a "tremendous loss" and renewed his demand for the SAVE America Act — the voter ID bill the Senate has already rejected twice (four Republicans joined Democrats both times), that Trump held a bipartisan housing bill hostage over, that he canceled his own DNI nominee's hearing over, and that Senate Majority Leader Thune says "doesn't have the votes." The same day, the Court denied Trump's appeal in the E. Jean Carroll sexual abuse case without comment, meaning the $5 million verdict — for a jury finding that Trump sexually abused Carroll — stands. Nearly one in three Americans voted by mail in 2024. The noncitizen voting "crisis" the SAVE Act claims to address: Heritage Foundation's own database documents 68 cases out of over one billion ballots cast in 40 years.

On June 29, 2026, the Supreme Court handed President Trump two defeats. His own appointee wrote the first one. Neither required a single Democratic vote.

Watson v. Republican National Committee

The Supreme Court ruled 5-4 that states may continue counting absentee ballots that arrive after Election Day, as long as they were postmarked on time. The decision in Watson v. Republican National Committee rejected a challenge by the RNC, the Mississippi Republican Party, and the Libertarian Party of Mississippi to Mississippi's practice of accepting mail ballots received up to five business days after polls close.

The opinion was written by Justice Amy Coney Barrett — nominated by Trump to replace Ruth Bader Ginsburg in 2020.

What Barrett wrote

Barrett stressed the ruling was "narrow" and dealt with statutory interpretation, not constitutional questions. Her key holdings:

"The electorate's choice is made when voting is complete, not when ballots are received."

Federal laws setting a single Election Day "leave open when those votes must be received." Because Congress set a deadline for casting votes but said nothing about when ballots must arrive, states are free to count ballots postmarked by Election Day.

Barrett dismissed the plaintiffs' historical argument with a line that will endure:

"At bottom, plaintiffs' theory is that because we are governed by 19th-century election-day laws, we are also governed by 19th-century voting practices."

On the fraud concerns raised by the RNC, she wrote: "Election fraud and its appearance are serious issues. Like other such issues, however, they must be addressed through the democratic process."

And on the broader policy question: "If varied deadlines for ballot receipt similarly call for a national solution, the American people must choose it."

Chief Justice Roberts and Justices Sotomayor, Kagan, and Jackson joined the majority.

The dissent

Justice Samuel Alito wrote the dissent, joined by Justices Thomas and Gorsuch, with Kavanaugh joining in part.

Alito warned the decision was "inconsistent with statutory text, legal context, historical practice, and precedent" and that "allowing absentee ballots to pour in over the days and weeks after election day" creates "greater opportunity for fraud" and "risks further undermining Americans' confidence in election integrity."

What it means for the midterms

The ruling lands months before the November 2026 midterm elections and immediately settles the law for roughly 30 states and D.C. that count some form of late-arriving ballots. Those states will not need to overhaul their procedures before Election Day.

The numbers behind the ruling:

Nearly one in three Americans — approximately 48 million voters — cast their ballots by mail in the 2024 general election
14 states and D.C. accept mail ballots postmarked by Election Day but received after
29 states and D.C. allow at least some military and overseas ballots to arrive after Election Day
Even with existing grace periods, more than 100,000 ballots were rejected for arriving too late in 2024

Stephen Richer, the Republican former top election official in Arizona's Maricopa County, called the outcome a "sigh of relief" for election administrators.

Trump's reaction — and the SAVE Act obsession

Trump called the ruling a "tremendous loss" and renewed his demand for the SAVE America Act, posting: "There is only one reason to oppose — CHEATING!"

The SAVE America Act would impose nationwide proof-of-citizenship requirements for voter registration, mandatory photo ID at polling places, restrictions on mail-in voting, voter roll audits, and criminal liability for election officials who violate the rules.

The problem: the SAVE Act cannot pass. It has been defeated in the Senate twice. Four Republicans — Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, Mitch McConnell, and Thom Tillis — joined Democrats both times. The most recent vote was 48-50. Senate Majority Leader Thune has said the bill "doesn't have the votes" and indicated he would not bring it to the floor again.

Trump's obsession with a bill the Senate won't pass has produced a cascade of hostage-taking:

He canceled the signing of a bipartisan housing bill on June 24, saying he would not sign it until Congress passes the SAVE Act — calling it a "National Emergency"
He canceled his own DNI nominee's confirmation hearing on June 17, conditioning it on attaching the SAVE Act to FISA renewal — causing FISA Section 702 to lapse for the first time in history
He has demanded the Senate eliminate the filibuster to pass it — Thune has refused
He told GOP senators to "find a way" — they haven't

The crisis the SAVE Act claims to address does not exist at any measurable scale. The Heritage Foundation's own election fraud database — the conservative organization that most aggressively advocates for the SAVE Act — documents 68 cases of noncitizen voting out of over one billion ballots cast over 40 years. That is an incidence rate below 0.0001%.

State-level audits confirm this:

Utah reviewed its entire voter list of over 2 million registered voters from April 2025 through January 2026 and found one noncitizen who had registered — who never voted
Georgia audited 8.2 million registered voters and found 20 noncitizens registered, 9 of whom had voted — in prior elections, mostly before enhanced verification was implemented
Michigan identified 16 noncitizen ballots out of roughly 5.7 million votes cast in 2024 — 0.00028%
Ohio flagged 521 cases of potential noncitizen voting over four years; an independent review found one actual case

Trump has said the SAVE Act would ensure Republicans "never lose another election for at least 50 years." That is the quiet part. The bill is not about preventing noncitizen voting — it's about making it harder for eligible citizens to vote by mail.

The Carroll denial

On the same day, the Supreme Court denied Trump's appeal in the E. Jean Carroll sexual abuse case — without comment. The $5 million verdict stands.

The case: Carroll, a longtime magazine advice columnist, testified at a 2023 trial that Trump turned a friendly encounter in spring 1996 into a violent attack in the dressing room at Bergdorf Goodman, a luxury retailer across the street from Trump Tower. The jury found that Trump sexually abused Carroll and defamed her, awarding $5 million in damages. The 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals affirmed the verdict in 2025.

Trump had argued that the trial judge improperly admitted testimony from two other women who accused him of sexual misconduct, and that the jury should not have seen the "Access Hollywood" tape — the 2005 recording in which Trump said he gropes and kisses women without consent.

The Supreme Court had delayed considering the appeal for months, repeatedly scheduling and then rescheduling its discussion. On June 29, it denied the petition.

Carroll's attorney, Roberta Kaplan: "Today's Supreme Court decision affirms once and for all the jury's unanimous verdict that President Donald J. Trump sexually assaulted and defamed E. Jean Carroll."

Trump posted that it was a "fake case" and claimed never to have met Carroll. He had already deposited $5.5 million in a court-controlled account after the 2023 verdict.

A separate $83 million defamation verdict in Carroll's favor is expected to be appealed to the Supreme Court next.

Two defeats, one day

In a single Monday, the Supreme Court told the president:

States can count mail ballots that arrive after Election Day — your appointee wrote the opinion
You sexually abused E. Jean Carroll and must pay for it — we decline to reconsider

The mail ballot ruling means the voting system Trump spent years attacking will remain in place through the midterms. The SAVE Act he keeps demanding cannot pass. The housing bill he held hostage over it sits unsigned. The DNI hearing he canceled over it left FISA lapsed and a housing official running intelligence. And his own Supreme Court pick — the justice he nominated days before the 2020 election — just wrote the opinion saying the mail voting system works as designed.

Barrett's closing thought applies to more than ballot deadlines: "The question today is not whether this is a good or bad idea, but whether the idea has made its way into the United States Code." The answer, for Trump, was no.