#deterrence — Trump Fail

The Trump Administration Convened a Select NATO Working Group in Poland to Discuss the Alliance's Future — and Pointedly Left Out the United Kingdom, France, and the Frontline Baltic States, Three of the Allies Most Committed to Defending Europe and Deterring Russia — Prompting Diplomats to Warn That Washington Is Trying to Split NATO Into "the Good Ones and the Bad Ones"

In early October 2026, the Trump administration organized a Pentagon-led NATO working group — reported as the "Bergen Group" — to meet in Poland and discuss the alliance's future, and it excluded some of NATO's most important members. Invited were Norway, Sweden, Finland, Poland, Germany, and the Netherlands. Left out were the United Kingdom and France — two of Europe's leading military powers and nuclear states — and the Baltic nations of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, the frontline states most exposed to Russia and among the alliance's most active defense contributors relative to their size. Allied diplomats were confused and alarmed, questioning Washington's criteria and warning against carving the alliance into tiers. "If they try splitting NATO into the good ones and the bad ones, it is dangerous for the US," one diplomat said. "But for Europe, this is existential." The exclusion of exactly the countries that do the most to deter Russian aggression — and the elevation of a hand-picked subset in their place — fits a documented pattern in Trump's foreign policy of straining the Western alliances that are America's greatest strategic advantage, in ways that serve Moscow's long-standing goal of a divided NATO.

A $1 Billion U.S. Navy Destroyer Went Completely Dead in the Water for Four Days in the Contested South China Sea — Its Sailors Left Without Drinkable Water, Meals, Working Toilets, or Air Conditioning in 95-Degree Heat — the Second American Warship in a Single Month to Strand Its Crew in Such Conditions, Kept Quiet Until Reporters Found It

On July 24, 2026, the USS Benfold — a roughly $1 billion Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer sailing with the George Washington carrier strike group — suffered an "engineering casualty" involving its generators and lost all power in the South China Sea, one of the most contested and strategically vital bodies of water on Earth. For four days the nearly 10,000-ton warship was dead in the water: unable to maneuver on its own, and with its galley, toilets, air conditioning, and potable (drinkable) water all knocked out, while temperatures in the region ran 90 to 99 degrees Fahrenheit. A U.S. cruiser, the USS Robert Smalls, had to bring hot meals to the crew; the Benfold was then towed to Subic Bay in the Philippines, with power finally restored on July 30 — six days after the failure — and repairs completed by August 8. No sailors were injured, and the cause remains under investigation. The incident is not, by itself, proof of anything beyond a bad mechanical failure. But it is the second time in a single month that an American warship has left its crew without water, food, functioning toilets, and air conditioning — coming right after the USS Abraham Lincoln's supply-and-conditions crisis in the Gulf. Two such breakdowns in a month, in two different oceans, is not a run of bad luck; it is the shape of a fleet stretched thin and worn down. And the Navy did not announce it — the four-day paralysis of a billion-dollar destroyer in waters the U.S. patrols specifically to deter China only became public weeks later, when journalists reported it.